Technology-induced job loss risk, disability and all-cause mortality in Norway.

BACKGROUND: Ongoing shifts in economic structure from automation and globalisation can affect employment and mortality, yet these relations are not well described. OBJECTIVE: We assess whether long-term employment and health outcomes relate systematically to structural change in the labour market, using the occupational Routine Task Intensity (RTI) score as indicator of exposure is to risks of outsourcing and technology-induced job loss. METHODS: Using a cohort design and administrative data with national population coverage, we categorise all Norwegian employees in 2003 by the RTI score of their occupation and examine how this score correlates with employment and health outcomes measured in 2018 and 2019. The study sample counts 416 003 men and 376 413 women aged 33-52 in 2003. RESULTS: The occupational RTI score at baseline is robustly associated with long-term employment, disability and mortality outcomes. Raw correlations are reduced after adjustment for potential confounders, but associations remain substantial in models controlling for individual covariates and in sibling comparisons. Working in an occupation with RTI score 1 SD above the mean in 2003 is associated with a raised probability of being deceased in 2019 of 0.24 percentage points (95% CI: 0.18 to 0.30) for men and 0.13 percentage points (95% CI: 0.02 to 0.24) for women, corresponding to raised mortality rates of 6.7% and 5.5%. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals in occupations characterised by high routine intensity are less likely to remain employed in the long term, and have higher rates of disability and mortality.

Income loss after a cancer diagnosis in Germany: An analysis based on the socio-economic panel survey.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Cancer treatments often require intensive use of healthcare services and limit patients' ability to work, potentially causing them to become financially vulnerable. The present study is the first attempt to measure, on the German national level, the magnitude of absolute income loss after a cancer diagnosis. METHODS: This study analyzes data from the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) survey, one of the largest and most comprehensive household surveys in Germany, consisting of approximately 20,000 individuals, who are traced annually. The empirical strategy consists of ordinary least squares (OLS) and multinomial logistic estimators to measure changes in job income, work status, working hours, and pension as a result of reporting a cancer diagnosis for the period between 2009 and 2015. Sample consistency checks were conducted to limit measurement error biases. RESULTS: Our results show that job incomes dropped between 26% and 28% within the year a cancer diagnosis was reported. The effect persisted for two years after the diagnosis and was no longer observable after four years. The finding was linked to an increased likelihood of unemployment and a reduction of working hours by 24%. Pension levels, on the other hand, were not affected by a cancer diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that many cancer patients are exposed to financial hardship in Germany, particularly when the cancer diagnosis occurs during their working age and before requirements to obtain a pension are met. Further research seems warranted to identify particularly vulnerable patient groups.

Mortality and fluctuations in macroeconomic activity in New Zealand.

AIMS: To model the statistical relationships between mortality rates and macroeconomic conditions in New Zealand over the post-war era. METHODS: Time series methods are used to model statistical relationships between the macroeconomic unemployment rate and mortality rates across different age groups and morbidities. RESULTS: Decreases in the age-adjusted mortality rate are two-and-a-half times as large during episodic increases in the national unemployment rate (p = 0.01). This short-run procyclicality is driven primarily by mortality among the elderly (66+) and middle-aged (36-65). There is also strong evidence that assault and self-inflicted harm mortality rates are countercyclical and have a long-run relationship with the national unemployment rate (p < 0.001 and p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Mortality exhibits both short-run procyclical and long-run countercyclical features. Accelerated reductions in elderly mortality during periods of rising unemployment are consistent with overseas evidence that tight labour markets have negative impacts on aged care. However, further research is necessary to uncover the causal channels, if any, that underpin this correlation in New Zealand data. Long-run variation in mortality due to violence, such as assaults and suicide, is closely linked to employment conditions, indicating that policy responses to violence and suicide should not preclude addressing a potential lack of employment opportunities.

The effects of carbon emissions, rainfall, temperature, inflation, population, and unemployment on economic growth in Saudi Arabia: An ARDL investigation.

OBJECTIVE: While macroeconomic and environmental events affect the overall economic performance of nations, there has not been much research on the effects of important macroeconomic and environmental variables and how these can influence progress. Saudi Arabia's economy relies heavily on its vast reserves of petroleum, natural gas, iron ore, gold, and copper, but its economic growth trajectory has been uneven since the 1990s. This study examines the effects of carbon emissions, rainfall, temperature, inflation, population, and unemployment on economic growth in Saudi Arabia. METHODS: Annual time series dataset covering the period 1990-2019 has been extracted from the World Bank and General Authority of Meteorology and Environmental Protection, Saudi Arabia. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration has served to investigate the long-run relationships among the variables. Several time-series diagnostic tests have been conducted on the long-term ARDL model to check its robustness. RESULTS: Saudi Arabia can still achieve higher economic growth without effectively addressing its unemployment problem as both the variables are found to be highly significantly but positively cointegrated in the long-run ARDL model. While the variable of carbon emissions demonstrated a negative effect on the nation's economic growth, the variables of rainfall and temperate were to some extent cointegrated into the nation's economic growth in negative and positive ways, respectively. Like most other nations the short-run effects of inflation and population on economic growth do vary, but their long-term effects on the same are found to be positive. CONCLUSIONS: Saudi Arabia can achieve both higher economic growth and lower carbon emissions simultaneously even without effectively addressing the unemployment problem. The nation should utilize modern scientific technologies to annual rainfall losses and to reduce annual temperature in some parts of the country in order to achieve higher economic growth.

COVID-19: Rethinking the Lockdown Groupthink.

The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) worldwide pandemic in 2020. In response, most countries in the world implemented lockdowns, restricting their population's movements, work, education, gatherings, and general activities in attempt to "flatten the curve" of COVID-19 cases. The public health goal of lockdowns was to save the population from COVID-19 cases and deaths, and to prevent overwhelming health care systems with COVID-19 patients. In this narrative review I explain why I changed my mind about supporting lockdowns. The initial modeling predictions induced fear and crowd-effects (i.e., groupthink). Over time, important information emerged relevant to the modeling, including the lower infection fatality rate (median 0.23%), clarification of high-risk groups (specifically, those 70 years of age and older), lower herd immunity thresholds (likely 20-40% population immunity), and the difficult exit strategies. In addition, information emerged on significant collateral damage due to the response to the pandemic, adversely affecting many millions of people with poverty, food insecurity, loneliness, unemployment, school closures, and interrupted healthcare. Raw numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths were difficult to interpret, and may be tempered by information placing the number of COVID-19 deaths in proper context and perspective relative to background rates. Considering this information, a cost-benefit analysis of the response to COVID-19 finds that lockdowns are far more harmful to public health (at least 5-10 times so in terms of wellbeing years) than COVID-19 can be. Controversies and objections about the main points made are considered and addressed. Progress in the response to COVID-19 depends on considering the trade-offs discussed here that determine the wellbeing of populations. I close with some suggestions for moving forward, including focused protection of those truly at high risk, opening of schools, and building back better with a economy.

Association of Long-Term Trajectories of Neighborhood Socioeconomic Status With Weight Change in Older Adults.

Importance: Studying long-term changes in neighborhood socioeconomic status (SES) may help to better understand the associations between neighborhood exposure and weight outcomes and provide evidence supporting neighborhood interventions. Little previous research has been done to examine associations between neighborhood SES and weight loss, a risk factor associated with poor health outcomes in the older population. Objective: To determine whether improvements in neighborhood SES are associated with reduced likelihoods of excessive weight gain and excessive weight loss and whether declines are associated with increased likelihoods of these weight outcomes. Design, Study, and Participants: This cohort study was conducted using data from the National Institutes of Health-AARP (formerly known as the American Association of Retired Persons) Diet and Health study (1995-2006). The analysis included a cohort of 126 179 adults (aged 50-71 years) whose neighborhoods at baseline (1995-1996) were the same as at follow-up (2004-2006). All analyses were performed from December 2018 through December 2020. Exposures: Living in a neighborhood that experienced 1 of 8 neighborhood SES trajectories defined based on a national neighborhood SES index created using data from the US Census and American Community Survey. The 8 trajectory groups, in which high, or H, indicated rankings at or above the sample median of a specific year and low, or L, indicated rankings below the median, were HHH (ie, high in 1990 to high in 2000 to high in 2010), or stable high; HLL, or early decline; HHL, or late decline; HLH, or transient decline; LLL, or stable low; LHH, or early improvement; LLH, or late improvement; and LHL, or transient improvement. Main Outcomes and Measures: Excessive weight gain and loss were defined as gaining or losing 10% or more of baseline weight. Results: Among 126 179 adults, 76 225 (60.4%) were men and the mean (SD) age was 62.1 (5.3) years. Improvements in neighborhood SES were associated with lower likelihoods of excessive weight gain and weight loss over follow-up, while declines in neighborhood SES were associated with higher likelihoods of excessive weight gain and weight loss. Compared with the stable low group, the risk was significantly reduced for excessive weight gain in the early improvement group (odds ratio [OR], 0.87; 95% CI, 0.79-0.95) and for excessive weight loss in the late improvement group (OR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.80-1.00). Compared with the stable high group, the risk of excessive weight gain was significantly increased for the early decline group (OR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.08-1.31) and late decline group (OR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.04-1.24) and for excessive weight loss in the early decline group (OR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.02-1.28). The increases in likelihood were greater when the improvement or decline in neighborhood SES occurred early in the study period (ie, 1990-2000) and was substantiated throughout the follow-up (ie, the early decline and early improvement groups). Overall, we found a linear association between changes in neighborhood SES and weight outcomes, in which every 5 percentile decline in neighborhood SES was associated with a 1.2% to 2.4% increase in the risk of excessive weight gain or loss (excessive weight gain: OR, 1.01; 95% CI, 1.00-1.02 for women; OR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01-1.03 for men; excessive weight loss: OR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01-1.03 for women; OR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01-1.03 for men; P for- trend < .0001). Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that changing neighborhood environment was associated with changes in weight status in older adults.

Spontaneous Coronary Artery Dissection: Does Being Unemployed Matter? Insights from the GSCAD Registry.

BACKGROUND: Spontaneous coronary artery dissection (SCAD) has emerged as an important cause of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and sudden cardiac death. Physical or emotional stressors are the most commonly reported triggers for SCAD. Unemployment has been identified as a source of emotional stress and is linked to poor mental and physical health. OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between employment status and in-hospital and follow-up adverse cardiovascular events in patients with SCAD. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective, multi-center, observational study of patients undergoing coronary angiography for ACS between January 2011 and December 2017. The total number of patients enrolled was 198,000. Patients were diagnosed with SCAD based on angiographic and intravascular imaging modalities whenever available. There were 83 patients identified with SCAD from 30 medical centers in 4 Arab gulf countries. In-hospital (myocardial infarction, percutaneous intervention, ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation, cardiogenic shock, death, internal cardioverter/ defibrillator placement, dissection extension) and follow-up (myocardial infarction, de novo SCAD, death, spontaneous superior mesenteric artery dissection) cardiac events were compared among those who were employed and those who were not. RESULTS: The median age of patients in the study was 44 (37- 55) years. There were 42 (50.6%) female patients, and 41 (49.4) male patients. Of the cohort, 50 (60%) of the patients were employed and the remaining 33 (40%) were unemployed. 66% of all men were employed and 76% of all women were unemployed. After adjusting for gender unemployment was associated with worse in- -hospital and follow-up cardiac events (adjusted OR 7.1, [1.3, 37.9]), p = 0.021. CONCLUSION: Adverse cardiovascular events were significantly worse for patients with SCAD who were unemployed.

Sickness absence trajectories following labour market participation patterns: a cohort study in Catalonia (Spain), 2012-2014.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have focused on the relationship between employment pathways and health-related outcomes based on cross-sectional or longitudinal approaches. However, little is known about the cumulative effects of employment status mobility on sickness absence (SA) over time. The aim of the present study was to examine the association between prior labour market participation (LMP) patterns and SA trajectories from a life-course perspective. METHODS: This cohort study was based on a sample of 11,968 salaried workers living in Catalonia and affiliated with the Spanish Social Security system, who accumulated more than 15 days on SA in at least one quarter during 2012-2014. Individuals were grouped into three different working life stages: early (18-25 years), middle (26-35 years), and late (36-45 years). To identify LMP patterns, we applied sequence analysis and cluster analysis (2002-2011), and we used latent class growth modelling to identify SA trajectories (2012-2014). Finally, we applied multinomial logistic regression models to assess the relationship between LMP patterns and SA trajectories. RESULTS: The analyses yielded six LMP patterns: stable employment (value range: 63-81%), increasing employment (5-22%), without long-term coverage (7-8%), decreasing employment (4-10%), fluctuant employment (13-14%), and steeply decreasing employment (7-9%). We also identified four SA trajectories: low stable (83-88%), decreasing (5-9%), increasing (5-11%), and high stable (7-16%). However, the only significant association we identified for LMP patterns and SA trajectories was among young men, for whom an increasing employment pattern was significantly associated with a lower risk for increased days on SA (adjusted odds ratio: 0.21; 95% confidence interval: 0.05-0.96). CONCLUSIONS: SA trajectories are generally not related to prior 10-year LMP patterns at any stage of working life. To disentangle this relationship, future research might benefit from considering working life transitions with a quality-of-work approach framed with contextual factors closer to the SA course.

Decline in fertility induced by economic recession in Spain / Disminución de la fertilidad inducida por la crisis económica en España

OBJECTIVE: To describe trends in fertility in Spain before (pre-recession; 1998-2008) and during (recession period; 2009-2013) the economic crisis of 2008, taking into account women's age and regional unemployment in 2010. METHOD: The study consisted of a panel design including cross-sectional ecological data for the 17 regions of Spain. We describe fertility trends in Spain in two time periods, pre-recession (1998-2008) and recession (2009-2013). We used a cross-sectional, ecological study of Spanish-born women to calculate changes in fertility rates for each period using a linear regression model adjusted for year, period, and interaction between them. RESULTS: We found that compared to the pre-recession period, the fertility rate in Spain generally decreased during the economic recession. However, in some regions, such as the Canary Islands, this decrease began before the onset of the recession, while in other regions, such as the Basque country, the fertility rate continued to grow until 2011. The effects of the recession on the fertility rate are clearly observed in women aged 30-34 years. CONCLUSIONS: The current economic recession has disrupted the positive trend in fertility that began at the start of this century. Since Spain already had very low fertility rates, the further decline caused by the economic recession could jeopardize the sustainability of welfare-state systems

OBJETIVO: Describir las tendencias de la fecundidad en España en la época precrisis (1998-2008) y durante la crisis (2009-2013) económica, teniendo en cuenta la edad de las mujeres y el desempleo regional en 2010. MÉTODO: Se utiliza un diseño panel que incluye datos ecológicos transversales para las 17 comunidades autónomas de España. Se describen las tendencias de fecundidad en los dos periodos. Para calcular los cambios en las tasas de fecundidad se utiliza un modelo de regresión lineal ajustado por año, periodo e interacción de ellas. RESULTADOS: En comparación con el periodo anterior, la tasa de fecundidad global en España disminuyó durante la crisis económica. Sin embargo, en algunas comunidades, como las Islas Canarias, esta disminución comenzó antes del inicio de la crisis, mientras que en otras, como el País Vasco, la tasa de fecundidad continuó creciendo hasta 2011. Los efectos de la crisis en la fecundidad se observan claramente en mujeres de 30 a 34 años. CONCLUSIONES: La crisis económica actual ha interrumpido la tendencia positiva en la fecundidad que comenzó a principios de este siglo. Dado que España ya tenía tasas de fecundidad muy bajas, el descenso causado por la crisis económica podría poner en peligro la sostenibilidad de los sistemas de bienestar social

Socioeconomic sequelae of drug abuse in a Swedish national cohort.

BACKGROUND: Drug abuse is frequently associated with negative sequelae such as reduced socioeconomic functioning. The extent to which these associations are attributable to a causal role of the disorder versus confounding factors that increase risk for both drug abuse and negative socioeconomic outcomes is unclear. METHODS: Drug abuse cases were identified using Swedish national medical, pharmacy, and criminal registers. Applying Cox proportional hazard models, we tested the association between drug abuse and four outcomes: early retirement, social assistance, unemployment, and income at age 50. We used co-relative models to determine whether familial confounding factors accounted for observed associations. RESULTS: In models adjusted for birth year, education, and early onset externalizing behavior, drug abuse was strongly associated with early retirement (hazard ratios [HR] = 5.13-6.28), social assistance (HR = 6.74-7.89), and income at age 50 (beta = -0.19 to -0.12); it was more modestly associated with unemployment (HR = 1.05-1.20). For social assistance and income (both sexes), and early retirement (women only), a model in which the association was partly attributable to familial factors fit the data well; residual associations support a partially causal role of drug abuse. For unemployment and early retirement among men, there was little evidence of familial confounding. CONCLUSIONS: The negative socioeconomic sequelae of drug abuse are likely due in part to familial confounding factors in conjunction with a causal relationship and/or unmeasured non-familial confounders. Relative contributions from distinct mechanisms differed across socioeconomic outcomes, which could have implications for understanding the potential impact of prevention and intervention efforts.

Risk for unemployment at 10 years following cancer diagnosis among very long-term survivors: a population based study.

PURPOSE: To clarify the association between cancer diagnosis and subsequent risk of being unemployed at 10 years after diagnosis among very long-term survivors. METHODS: A historical cohort study using prospectively collected data was done which included baseline measurements from the Israeli national census. Only patients who were 50 years old or younger at the time of diagnosis were included in the current study. Binary logistic regression analyses were used to assess odds ratios for unemployment at 10 years following diagnosis, while controlling for socioeconomic measurements and employment status at 2 years prior to diagnosis. RESULTS: The final study population included 2493 patients who were diagnosed with cancer and 7360 persons without a history of cancer, after excluding individuals who died before the end of 2015. After controlling for confounders, positive associations were found between cancer and increased risk for unemployment at 10 years (OR = 1.31, 95% CI 1.17-1.47). Analysis by cancer type revealed that patients who were diagnosed with CNS malignancies (OR = 2.71, 95% CI 1.80-4.07), followed by patients who were diagnosed with lymphoma (OR = 1.66, 95% CI 1.16-1.28) showed the greatest magnitude of effect, while the association between unemployment at 10 years following diagnosis and breast cancer was found to weaken and actually lose significance (adjusted OR = 1.22, 95% CI 0.99-1.50). CONCLUSIONS: Cancer survivors have an increased risk for long-term unemployment among very long-term survivors, mainly among patients diagnosed with CNS malignancies and lymphoma. IMPLICATIONS FOR CANCER SURVIVORS: The current study emphasizes the need for tailored intervention in order to mitigate the long-term risk of unemployment.